Warmer Odds Build Across the Central and Eastern States as the West Trends Cooler and Wetter

For November 16th to 20th, much of the central and northern United States is favored to see above-normal temperatures for the time of year, with the highest chances greater than 80 percent across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Near- to below-normal temperatures are more likely across portions of California, the Great Basin and the Southwest. Slightly increased chances of below-normal readings appear along coastal parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, though warmer air is expected to arrive during the period. Above-normal temperatures are favored over much of Alaska and Hawaii, while the Aleutians lean near- to below-normal. Confidence in this outlook is well above average thanks to strong agreement among the forecast tools.

During November 16th to 20th, above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the western and central United States, with the highest odds greater than 70 percent over the Four Corners region. An extra surge of moisture is possible along the West Coast, especially California, around the middle of the period. Below-normal precipitation is more likely across portions of the East, while elevated chances of above-normal amounts extend across Florida and near the Gulf Coast. Near- to above-normal precipitation is favored for Alaska, and near-normal amounts are expected for Hawaii. Confidence remains well above average.

Looking at November 18th to 24th, increased chances of above-normal temperatures cover much of the country from the Rockies eastward, along with the northwestern United States near the Canadian border. The highest probabilities, above 70 percent, sit across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with stronger odds also appearing along the East Coast compared with the earlier period. A tilt toward below-normal temperatures remains across the Southwest. Above-normal temperatures continue to be favored over most of Alaska and Hawaii. Confidence for this period is above average.

For November 18th to 24th, chances of above-normal precipitation expand from much of the West into the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Probabilities rise above 60 percent across portions of the Great Plains and nearby Mississippi Valley, and stay above 50 percent through the Southwest and California. Below-normal precipitation odds remain higher across parts of the Northeast. Near- to above-normal precipitation is favored over Alaska, while near-normal amounts are expected for Hawaii. Confidence is above average overall.