11/8/26 Update: Northern Plains Have Strong Odds of Unseasonably Warm Weather Next Week

From November 14th to 18th, warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored across most of the country from the Pacific coast eastward through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the western Great Lakes. The chances are especially high in parts of the Northern Plains, where there is a better than 90 percent likelihood of temperatures running above what is typical for this time of year. Farther east, near-normal to cooler-than-normal conditions are more likely from the eastern CONUS, though northern Maine has a slight edge toward warmer weather. Confidence in this temperature outlook is well above average because the weather models agree well on the overall pattern.

During the same period from November 14th to 18th, wetter-than-normal conditions are likely over much of the western United States from the Pacific coast all the way to the Great Plains. In contrast, drier-than-normal weather is favored across a large part of the eastern country from the Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic coast, with the exception of South Florida. Near-normal precipitation is the best bet for Hawaii. The overall confidence remains well above average, supported by good agreement among the forecast tools.

Looking ahead to November 16th through 22nd, near-normal to cooler-than-normal temperatures are slightly favored over much of the western United States, although northern areas of the Pacific Northwest and the immediate Southern California coast lean a bit warmer. From the Rocky Mountains eastward to the Atlantic coast, above-normal warmth is likely for the rest of the country, with the odds exceeding 80 percent over the northern central United States. Alaska is expected to see warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the mainland and Southeast, while Hawaii also favors above-normal conditions. Confidence is above average even as some uncertainty grows later in the period.

From November 16th to 22nd, wetter-than-normal precipitation is favored across the entire western and central United States from the Pacific coast to the Mississippi Valley. Most of Florida has a slight chance of above-normal rainfall as well, while drier-than-normal conditions are more likely over most of the northeastern United States. Hawaii is expected to see near-normal precipitation. Confidence in this precipitation outlook is above average, based on general agreement on the large-scale pattern despite some increasing differences farther out in time.