Milder Than Normal Pattern Favored Across Much of the Country Mid-Month

The period from November 13th to 17th favors warmer than normal temperatures over the western and central parts of the country compared with what is typical for this time of year. Chances of above normal warmth reach 80 to 90 percent across the northern Plains and nearby parts of Nebraska and Minnesota. The eastern third of the United States is more likely to see near to cooler than normal conditions. In Alaska, warmer than normal is favored over the eastern half of the mainland and Southeast Alaska, with chances exceeding 50 percent in Southeast Alaska, while the western half of the mainland stays near normal. Hawaii is also favored for above normal temperatures. Confidence in this temperature outlook is above average.

From November 13th to 17th, wetter than normal precipitation is favored west of the Continental Divide, with a 50 to 60 percent chance along most of the West Coast and maximum odds of 70 to 80 percent south of San Francisco Bay. This wetter pattern extends across much of the Southern Plains. Most of the rest of the country, except southern Florida, is expected to receive below to near normal precipitation amounts, with the highest chances of drier than normal conditions at 40 to 50 percent across central and interior eastern areas. Southern Florida has better odds of above normal precipitation. Alaska is favored for above normal precipitation over the Aleutians, mainland, and Southeast. Hawaii has a slight tilt toward drier than normal. Confidence is above average.

For November 15th to 21st, above normal temperatures are favored across most of the country compared with typical mid-November conditions. The highest confidence, with greater than an 80 percent chance of warmer than normal weather, covers parts of the Northern Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the upper Great Lakes. Southern Florida is the exception and is favored for near normal temperatures. Alaska is expected to see above normal temperatures over the Aleutians, mainland, and Southeast. Hawaii also has elevated chances of above normal warmth. Confidence in this temperature forecast is near average.

From November 15th to 21st, wetter than normal precipitation is expected to overspread the western and central United States as far east as the Mississippi River and continue across southern Florida. Maximum chances of 50 to 60 percent for above normal precipitation are indicated over parts of the southwestern and south-central areas. Drier than normal amounts are favored for most of the Great Lakes region, the upper Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, most of the Appalachians, and the Atlantic coastal plain as far south as the Carolinas. Alaska continues with above normal precipitation odds over the Aleutians, mainland, and Southeast. Hawaii is favored for near normal precipitation. Confidence for this period is near average.