Milder Conditions Favored West and Central U.S. as West Coast Sees Higher Rain Chances

For November 11th to 15th, above normal temperatures are favored across the western and central United States, meaning warmer than what is typical for mid-November, with the strongest chances of 80 to 90 percent over the Northern Plains and nearby parts of Minnesota. Near normal temperatures are expected over the eastern third of the country, along with a narrow area of below normal readings along coastal New England. In Alaska, above normal temperatures are favored over the eastern half of the Mainland and Southeast Alaska, with chances exceeding 50 percent in Southeast Alaska, while near to slightly below normal conditions are more likely over the western half of the Mainland and below normal temperatures are favored for the Aleutians. Hawaii is also favored to see above normal temperatures. Confidence in this temperature outlook is slightly above average thanks to solid agreement among the main forecast tools.

During November 11th to 15th, above normal precipitation is favored west of the Continental Divide, with 60 to 70 percent chances along the entire West Coast and southern Arizona, bringing a better chance of wetter than typical conditions for the period. A weak disturbance is expected to raise precipitation odds farther across much of the Southern Plains as well. Most of the rest of the contiguous United States is favored for below to near normal precipitation, with the highest chances of drier conditions at 50 to 60 percent across a large part of the north-central states, though the Florida Peninsula leans toward above normal amounts. Above normal precipitation is favored for northern, central and eastern Alaska plus the Aleutians, while the western Hawaiian Islands have a slight tilt toward drier than normal conditions and the eastern islands lean near normal.

Looking ahead to November 13th to 19th, above normal temperatures are favored across nearly all of the contiguous United States, again meaning milder than average for the time of year, with the highest confidence greater than 80 percent over eastern North Dakota and nearby northern Minnesota. The main exception is along the immediate East Coast, where near normal temperatures are more likely. Anomalous warmth is favored across central and eastern Alaska, while mostly near normal temperatures are expected from the western Mainland across the Alaska Peninsula and the Aleutians. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored across Hawaii. Confidence for this period is near average.

For November 13th to 19th, above normal precipitation is expected to spread across most areas west of the Mississippi River, with the best chances of 60 to 70 percent from near the San Francisco Bay area southward to southwestern Arizona and 50 to 60 percent odds along the entire West Coast, the southern Four Corners region and far western Texas. Higher than normal precipitation chances also extend to the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida. Below normal precipitation is favored for most of the Great Lakes region, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Appalachians and the Atlantic coastal plain as far south as the Carolinas. The outlook for Alaska is uncertain with a slight preference toward near or above normal amounts, while Hawaii leans toward near normal precipitation.