Strongest Odds of Milder Weather Focus on Northern Plains and Upper Midwest

For November 15th to 19th, much of the interior and northern United States is favored to see warmer than normal temperatures for the time of year, with the highest chances greater than 80 percent across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Slightly increased chances of cooler than normal weather appear across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, though a transition toward milder air is already underway. Near to below normal temperatures are favored across parts of California and the Great Basin. Elevated chances of above-normal temperatures cover much of Alaska, with near to below normal readings more likely over the Aleutians, while above-normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii. Forecast confidence for this period is well above average thanks to strong agreement among the available tools.

During November 15th to 19th, increased chances of above-normal precipitation cover much of the western and central United States, with the highest odds greater than 60 percent over the Southwest. Below-normal precipitation is more likely across portions of the East, while elevated chances of above-normal precipitation appear across Florida and near the Gulf Coast. Near to above-normal precipitation is favored across Alaska, and near-normal precipitation is expected over Hawaii. Confidence remains well above average for these precipitation trends.

Looking at November 17th to 23rd, increased chances of warmer than normal temperatures extend across much of the country from the Rockies eastward and into the northwestern United States near the Canadian border. The highest probabilities, above 80 percent, center on the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with stronger odds also building along the East Coast. A tilt toward cooler than normal temperatures is favored over the Southwest. Above-normal temperatures are likely over most of Alaska and remain favored for Hawaii. Forecast confidence for this period is above average.

For November 17th to 23rd, chances of above-normal precipitation increase from much of the West into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, with some areas possibly seeing 1.5 to 3 inches and probabilities above 60 percent over parts of the central United States. Below-normal precipitation odds stay elevated across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. Near to above-normal precipitation is favored over Alaska, while near-normal amounts are expected across Hawaii. Confidence is above average overall.