Long Range: Strongest Chances for Warmer Weather Across Northern Plains and Rockies

For the period covering November 8th to 12th, warmer than normal temperatures for the time of year are likely across the West. Chances rise above 80 percent for above normal readings across the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains as the milder pattern spreads eastward into the north-central states. Above normal temperatures are also more likely across the Northeast and Great Lakes. Farther south and east, cooler than normal conditions are favored over parts of the Southeast. In Alaska, warmer than normal weather is likely across much of the eastern half of the state while near to below normal temperatures are more likely from the Aleutians into western Mainland Alaska. Hawaii is expected to see above normal temperatures. Confidence in this temperature outlook is above average thanks to fairly good agreement among the main forecast tools.

Looking at precipitation for November 8th to 12th, an active pattern favors above normal rainfall across much of the West, with chances exceeding 60 percent along parts of the West Coast. Above normal precipitation is also favored in parts of the Northeast and southern Florida. Across the rest of the contiguous United States, near to below normal amounts are more likely. A slight tilt toward drier than normal conditions is indicated for parts of western Mainland Alaska. In Hawaii, above normal precipitation is favored for the Big Island while near to below normal amounts are likely over Maui, Oahu, and Kauai. Confidence remains above average for this period.

For the longer outlook covering November 10th to 16th, warmer than normal temperatures for the time of year are favored across most of the country. The highest confidence, greater than an 80 percent chance, centers on portions of the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley. Chances of above normal temperatures are lowest across much of Florida. Eastern Alaska is more likely to see anomalous warmth while near to below normal temperatures are favored from the western Mainland out to the Aleutians. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored across Hawaii. Confidence in the temperature forecast stays above average.

Precipitation chances for November 10th to 16th show an active pattern likely across much of the western and central United States as well as eastern Alaska. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 60 percent over the Pacific Northwest and northwestern California. Above normal amounts are modestly favored across parts of the Southeast. Meanwhile, increased chances of below normal precipitation are favored across most of the northeastern United States, including the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and nearby areas of the Ohio Valley. A tilt toward drier conditions is also indicated for parts of western Mainland Alaska, while near to below normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii. Confidence for this period is above average.