Moderate Flash Flood Risk Focuses on East-Central Florida This Afternoon

On Monday, November 2nd, into early Tuesday, November 3rd, a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall covers areas between Melbourne and Port St. Lucie along Florida’s east-central coast. Flash flooding is likely in this zone after 5 to 15 inches have already fallen in a narrow corridor, with another 2 to 4 inches and locally as much as 8 inches possible through the first half of the afternoon. Inland areas northwest of Lake Okeechobee have also seen 4 to 8 inches and remain vulnerable. The threat should ease later in the afternoon and evening. Never drive through flooded roads or low water crossings.

Also on Monday into early Tuesday, a Slight risk stretches across parts of eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa, where scattered flash flooding is possible. A Marginal risk covers western Kansas into southern Nebraska and portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Rainfall of 1.5 to 2 inches is expected over a wide area, with local amounts over 2 to 3 inches possible as storms develop this evening and overnight ahead of a cold front. Heaviest rates and the greatest chance of flooding should focus on the Slight risk zone. Avoid flooded streets and low water crossings.

For Tuesday, November 3rd, into early Wednesday, November 4th, a Slight risk remains centered over the Mid-South, including northern Mississippi, southwestern Tennessee and far northwest Alabama. Scattered flash flooding is possible near Memphis and westward toward the Mississippi Delta as storms re-intensify along a cold front. Some local flooding concerns also exist farther southwest into southern Arkansas. In Florida, only isolated flash flooding is possible after the heavy rains of the previous day, mainly in already-soaked urban spots. Stay clear of flooded roadways.

On Wednesday, November 4th, into early Thursday, November 5th, a Marginal risk covers areas from the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Isolated flash flooding is possible, especially where rain falls on sensitive terrain. Most places should see 1 to 2 inches, though a few spots could pick up 2 to 3 inches. The greatest concern lies in the upslope areas of the southern Appalachians as storms move east. Low water crossings and small creeks remain the primary flooding spots.

On Thursday, November 5th, into early Friday, November 6th, the chance of rainfall heavy enough to cause flash flooding drops below 5 percent across the country. No risk areas are in effect. A stalled front near the East Coast could still produce locally heavier rain from the eastern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, but dry ground and uncertainty about exact amounts keep the outlook free of any formal risk.