Warmer Than Normal Pattern Favored Across Most of the Lower 48 Mid-November

For November 10th to 14th, above normal temperatures are favored over most of the contiguous United States compared with what is typical for mid-November. The strongest chances, reaching 80 to 90 percent, cover the northern Plains and much of Minnesota. Near normal temperatures are more likely over New England and northern and central Florida. In Alaska, above normal temperatures are favored over the central and eastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska, with chances exceeding 50 percent in Southeast Alaska, while near normal readings are expected across the western third of the Mainland. Hawaii is also favored to stay above normal. Forecast confidence is above average thanks to good overall agreement among the available tools.

During November 10th to 14th, above normal precipitation is favored west of the Continental Divide, with 60 to 70 percent chances along the entire West Coast and 70 to 80 percent chances from central California northward through southwestern Oregon. Above normal chances also extend across portions of the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and parts of the Southeast. In contrast, below normal precipitation is favored from the Northern and Central Plains south through much of Oklahoma and eastward across most of the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, most of the Appalachians, the Northeast, and the Upper Mid-Atlantic, with the highest chances of 60 to 70 percent along the northern tier from northeastern Montana to Michigan. Alaska leans above normal over northern, central, and eastern areas, with a slight tilt toward drier conditions in the southwestern Mainland. Most of the Hawaiian Islands lean slightly drier than normal. Confidence remains above average.

For November 12th to 18th, above normal temperatures continue to be favored across the contiguous United States. The highest confidence, greater than 80 percent, is focused on eastern portions of the Dakotas and much of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Across Alaska, above normal temperatures are favored in the central and eastern areas, while near to below normal temperatures are more likely from the western Mainland to the Aleutians. Hawaii remains favored for above normal temperatures. Forecast confidence stays above average overall.

From November 12th to 18th, above normal precipitation is favored across most of the western half of the Lower 48, with the greatest chances of 60 to 70 percent over western California and southwestern Oregon. Above normal precipitation is also favored along the Gulf Coast and across the Southeast. Below normal amounts are more likely over portions of the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes region, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, most of the Appalachians, the Northeast, and the Upper Mid-Atlantic. Alaska shows a mix of near to above normal precipitation. In Hawaii, the western islands lean below normal while the eastern islands favor near normal amounts. Confidence is above average for this period as well.